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土地流转利好复合肥龙头股
发布时间:2014-9-26 10:44:31  查看次数:1560  字体大小【

基础化工:土地流转利好复合肥龙头股

2014-09-24 08:46:25 来源: 光大证券 0人参与
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临近年末,土地流转等农村改革政策关注度明显升温.

从今年年初中央1 号文件中提出深化农村土地制度改革、构建新型农业经营体系、鼓励农户流转承包土地经营权等内容以来,农村土地流转进程在政策的扶持下加速推进。临近四季度,受益农村改革的相关行业和公司有望再次成为市场关注的焦点。在10 月份召开的十八届四中全会上预计农村问题仍将成为讨论热点。近期土地流转相关政策已陆续出台,而国务院牵头的“农垦改革发展重大问题调研组”正奔赴全国各地垦区调研;同时在企业层面,阿里巴巴推出“聚土地”项目将土地流转与电子商务结合,也正在探索农村土地改革的新模式。我们认为农村土地制度的变革会进一步深化,而这也将会打破中国农村固有的传统商业模式,建议关注农化公司经营变革中的投资机会。

土地流转政策利好复合肥及农药制剂龙头.

土地流转促使农业经营向集约化、规模化方向转变,农业经营者结构从传统个人向种植大户、家庭农场、合作社转变,进而导致农化资料生产企业的核心竞争力从成本向产品研发、渠道、品牌以及提供农化服务能力的综合优势转变,市场份额加速向龙头优势企业集中。相比单质肥企业,复合肥和农药制剂由于产品、品牌存在差异化以及对农化服务要求更高,龙头企业受益土地流转政策将更为明显。

上调金正大、史丹利评级至“买入”,维持诺普信“买入”评级.

建议关注复合肥龙头企业金正大史丹利和农药制剂龙头诺普信的投资机会。我们认为在未来2~3 年内复合肥龙头企业即使保持目前的经营模式,仍能凭借全国市场开拓和产品升级,达到年均20%~30%超越行业平均水平的利润增速。此外随着土地流转等农村政策的进一步深化,复合肥龙头企业有望通过外部合作的方式(例如金正大与诺普信的合作),利用自身物流、仓储、渠道方面的优势向互联网化、平台化、专业化、一体化方向转变,引导中国农村商业模式特别是农资销售模式发生变革,从而带来广阔的发展空间。维持金正大14、15 年EPS1.23 元、1.62 元(未考虑增发摊薄),史丹利14、15 年EPS1.68 元、2.04 元的盈利预测,上调金正大、史丹利评级至“买入”。此外我们继续推荐已启动O2O 农资大平台建设以及与金正大达成战略合作协议的农药制剂龙头诺普信,公司渠道正持续改善,而经营模式的创新将进一步对渠道改善形成正效应,维持公司14、15 年EPS0.36、0.45 元的盈利预测,维持“买入”评级。

风险分析:政策层面不达预期;行业竞争激烈程度超出市场预期。

 
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