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需求弱涨价难复合肥行情考验加剧
发布时间:2014-9-26 10:41:46  查看次数:1840  字体大小【

需求弱 涨价难 复合肥行情考验加剧

2014年09月25日 08:13  生意社  我有话说 收藏本文     

  生意社09月25日讯

  进入9月下旬,复合肥需求减弱的态势继续恶化。厂家涨价后接单量明显降低,装置开工率直线下滑。原料市场也无有力支撑,复合肥平稳行情考验加剧。

  目前山东地区45%氯基高磷复合肥主流出厂报价2100~2200元,45%硫基复合肥主流出厂报价2200~2330元;湖北地区45%硫基复合肥主流出厂报价2250~2300元,45%氯基高氮复合肥主流出厂报价1930~2050元;安徽地区45%硫基复合肥主流出厂报价2250~2300元,45%氯基复合肥主流出厂报价1850~1900元。8月底,原料价格全面上扬,支撑复合肥成本整体提高,厂家报价陆续跟涨,最大涨幅超过200元。但9月初以来,随着秋季备肥缺口逐步缩小,市场需求显出疲态,高价成交并不顺畅,厂家接单量迅速下滑。出货量减少,给企业库存形成一定压力,为此多数企业下调开工率。据统计,截至目前整体开工率已低至4成左右。

  近期多地降雨也拖延了市场进度。据农情部门统计,近两周,华北南部、黄淮中部、华南南部、四川盆地大部、贵州西部、云南东南部等地降水偏多。记者从市场了解到,由于连日降雨,各地走货速度缓慢,也在一定程度上延迟了经销商补货进度。目前基层用肥尚未启动,且各地到货量都在8成左右,经销商都在处理库存。在终端购肥前,流通环节走货不会有明显起色。而补货量有限,后期需求仍有变数。

  影响补货需求的最大变数还是价格。从目前看,经销商对上调后的价格接受度不高,厂家也表示涨价后成交有限,生产也主要靠前期订单支撑。后期复合肥价格能否维持平稳,并传导至终端销售,取决于原料价格走向。

  近期原料价格略有波动,但对复合肥成本影响不大,价格得以维稳。总体看,原料市场利好利空相当。尿素方面,内需仍然疲软,10月份之前工业需求难有好转;印度第三次尿素采购招标上周公布的结果显示,最低投标价格折合成中国离岸价在1590~1630元,基本与中国内销价格接轨,在10底出口窗口期结束前,将对国内市场形成一定支撑。磷肥方面,一铵市场运行平稳,企业预收订单短期会支撑开工率,但随着秋季肥生产接近尾声,交易将明显放缓,在开工下调的过程中不排除价格小幅下滑。钾肥方面,工业需求有所减弱,但下半年供应量偏少,且东北市场启动,将带动颗粒钾肥继续稳中回升。

  目前市场低价货源占主流,且供应过剩的基本面没有改变,复合肥缺少继续上涨的动力。本月底前后,如果补货顺利启动,在原料行情整体维稳的情况下,复合肥行情有望继续维稳,为冬储市场启动奠定基础。

  上周国际复合肥价格平稳。波罗的海散装48%复合肥现货离岸价365~375美元,45%复合肥355~365美元;中国散装48%复合肥到岸价375~395美元;东南亚散装48%复合肥385~405美元;法国散装51%复合肥现货到站价345~365欧元;英国袋装40%复合肥(氮磷钾含量20%-10%-10%)305~315英镑;德国散装45%复合肥320~330欧元。

  (文章来源:中国化肥网)

 
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